Covid peaks in 44 states are now easing as experts predict cases to rise in coming weeks

The Omicron variant is showing more signs of burning up this week, with the rate of cases slowing in 44 states over the past two days.

National case growth is also slowing, with the daily average of cases stagnating at around 786,000 after a rapid rise in recent weeks.

While cases are still on the rise, the massive slowdown in the number of cases adds to the growing body of evidence that the new strain is running out of people to infect — a phenomenon that many U.S. health experts have criticized in recent weeks. predicted.

An analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University shows that the U.S. has an average of 786,406 new cases per day, a 121 percent increase in the past two weeks and a 30 percent increase in the past seven days. By comparison, last Thursday, January 6, there were an average of 607,064 cases per day in the US, a 70 percent increase from the previous week. That means week-to-week growth in the number of cases has more than halved in the first half of January.

The biggest declines in the number of cases in recent days have been seen in the Northeast, with states that once saw an increase in meteorite cases now that the number of cases has begun to decline. In New York and New Jersey, states that experienced a more than sevenfold increase at the beginning of the Omicron peak are now seeing an increase of about 40 percent in the past two weeks.

New York has an average of 350 new Covid cases per 100,000 inhabitants every day, a 45 percent increase in two weeks. While the Empire state is still one of the national leaders in terms of infection rates, it may slowly slide down the rankings.

Neighboring New Jersey is also among the US leaders in infection rates, with 314 of every 100,000 residents testing positive daily. As in New York, cases in Garden state are up 40 percent in the past two weeks, a sharp slowdown from the tripling of cases the state experienced as the new year began.

Other states that have registered spikes in recent weeks, such as Maryland, Georgia and Illinois, have all seen case growth slow in mid-January, indicating that the peak is near in many US states.

Once the peak is reached, cases can begin to decrease rapidly. In the UK, which is usually ahead of the US, it is up nearly 40 percent in the past week, a prodigious decline for a nation that many people believed would be completely engulfed by the virus just weeks ago. The country’s capital, London, emerged as an early global hotspot for the variant and has already seen cases drop.

South Africa, the place where Omicron was discovered and the first place to feel the effects of the highly contagious strain, has also seen a massive drop in daily cases in recent weeks, with current daily numbers hovering around 6,500 – a 70 percent drop from its late December peak of 23,000 cases per day.

In the US, case changes are usually calculated on a two-week basis. Due to America’s large, decentralized nature compared to other countries, reporting can be inconsistent from day to day. Some states record cases on all five weekdays and even on weekends, while others report cases only once a week.

To normalize the inconsistencies, the daily number of cases is averaged on a weekly basis and compared over a two-week period to determine the rate of change of the case.

A declining rate of change in 44 of the 50 US states on Thursday compared to Wednesday — along with a declining national rate of change shows that the recent changes are not just outliers, but a true nationwide pandemic trend.

Many experts have also predicted that a peak will be reached in the US in the near future. dr. Ali Mokdad, of the University of Washington in Seattle, told the Associated Press this week that he also believes the same thing will happen, and that the number of cases could actually decrease rapidly.

“It will come down just as fast as it has risen,” said Mokdad, who teaches health metrics at the school.

dr. Pavitra Roychoudhury, a bioinformatics expert also at the University of Washington, told that more tests than ever are positive right now, and while overwhelming, the recent surge should peak soon.

“My understanding is that eventually enough people will be infected that there will be some kind of immunity,” she said.

“That will lead to those case numbers stabilizing, then falling again… It can’t come soon enough.”

dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Disease and the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said on Tuesday the variant will eventually infect nearly everyone in America.

“Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented efficiency of portability, will eventually find just about everyone,” Fauci said.

“Those who have been vaccinated … and given a boost would be exposed. Some, maybe a lot of them, will get infected, but most likely, with a few exceptions, will do quite well in terms of no hospitalization and death.’

As of now, 1,718 Americans die from Covid every day, a 35 percent increase in the past two weeks. Although the growth in the number of cases has slowed, the number of deaths has still risen slowly this week. According to Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), these recent increases are more attributable to the Delta variant than Omicron.

The CDC reports that 98 percent of active U.S. cases are from Omicron, with Delta making up less than two percent. However, the agency found that Omicron is about 91 percent less lethal than its predecessor and believes that Delta’s continued circulation still does the most damage.

Americans hospitalized with Covid are also at record levels, with 148,782 people being treated daily. Not all of these people are being treated for Covid, however, as some people who arrive at facilities to treat another condition test positive while there and are added to the ledger.

Data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) shows that 80 percent of U.S. hospital beds are currently occupied, and 20 percent are used by Covid-positive patients.


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